“Critically Insufficient” Climate Policy

While November’s COP26 summit was the first time a global climate deal explicitly identified fossil-fuel consumption as a major driver of climate change, climate experts have warned it has not gone far enough to limit global warming to “well below” 2° centigrade compared to pre-industrial levels—a key level of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

So which countries are taking action, and which are not?

Scientific analysts Climate Action Tracker (CAT) have examined government policy of 40 countries that account for the vast majority of global greenhouse-gas emissions.

Its analysis indicates less economically developed countries are struggling the most to combat the effects wrought by their richer neighbors.

At present, only a small group of developed markets are leading on research, innovation and public funding, according to Steve Varley, EY Global’s vice chair of sustainability.

He told Newsweek that governments need to work more collaboratively and alongside businesses to drive change. “A small group of developed markets are leading the way in terms of climate research, innovation and public funding, at a time when not enough ‘green money’ is flowing to emerging markets where the impacts of climate change are felt the most,” he said.

The Very Worst

(“Critically Insufficient” Countries)

CAT notes this indicates a country’s climate policies and commitments reflecting minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Iran

Iran is one of the few countries that has not ratified the Paris Agreement, and this effect, compounded by an economic crisis resulting from International sanctions in place since 2018, has meant a decrease in the export of fossil-fuel oil, yet there has been a sluggishness in embracing eco-friendly policies.

Economic effects of sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed climate policy developments further, according to CAT analysts.

Russia

In November 2020, Russia proposed reducing its emissions by a minimum of 30 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. But CAT analysts do not assess the target as an increase in climate action, “as it is simply the lower bound of the previous target’s range (25–30%).”

U.S. President Joe Biden criticized Russia—the world’s fifth-largest carbon-dioxide (CO²) emitter —for not attending the COP26 climate summit.

CAT states: “Russia needs to set a more ambitious target for emissions reductions, adopt and implement additional policies, and provide additional finance.”

Singapore

Singapore’s climate policies and commitments reflect “minimal to no action,” according to CAT. Government policy here is “not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement,” it said.

The island city-state in Southeast Asia is also believed to be overly reliant on natural gas, which CAT estimates provides 96 percent of the country’s electricity.

CAT writes: “If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming could reach over 3C and up to 4C”—twice the upper target of the Paris Agreement.

Thailand

CAT analysts call Thailand’s overall climate performance “weak despite some good intentions.”

Thai leaders have pledged to shift away from a dependency on coal to natural gas over the next 20 years, but little change has been witnessed so far.

CAT writes: “Until the next wave of Thailand’s climate strategies and its accompanying mitigation policies are implemented and strengthened, the CAT rates Thailand’s climate targets and policies as ‘critically insufficient’.”

Turkey

Turkey is “at a crossroads” regarding its energy future, CAT analysts say. President Erdoğan’s government intends to decrease dependency on gas imports through increased renewable energy capacity, but at the same time plans to continue to use domestic coal for the foreseeable future.

CAT writes: “Turkey’s emissions will increase significantly under current policies. This first NDC [Nationally Determined Contributions] is so weak that it allows GHG [Green House Gas] emissions to essentially double compared to current levels.”

Vietnam

Vietnam lacks policies for a transition to a low-carbon economy and has not focused efforts on emissions reductions, according to the analysts.

While the country’s renewable energy policy has witnessed “positive developments,” CAT considers these outweighed by “plans for continuing the expansion of fossil fuels.”

It writes: “Vietnam is further off track when compared with modelled domestic pathways and the extent of reductions that need to be taking place inside its borders with international support.”

Extremely Poor Performing

“Highly Insufficient” Countries

Note CAT rates these countries policies and actions are considered to lead to “rising, rather than falling, emissions” tabulating to global temperatures rising “up to 4C by end of the century.”

Argentina

Argentina’s policies and actions are considered “not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature limit,” by CAT analysts.

Beset by economic trouble, the country failed to introduce a single green measure of note in its latest recovery stimulus plan, according to the researchers.

Former President Mauricio Macri’s government declared a “climate emergency” in 2019, but little action has been taken since, analysts found.

Australia

Australia was one of several countries that proved unsupportive of COP26 plans to strengthen 2030 targets at next year’s summit in Egypt.

CAT writes: “GHG emissions in Australia have dipped due to a range of factors, but effective climate policy is not one of them.”

Brazil

Although Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro missed the COP26 summit, South America’s largest country pledged to reduce methane emissions and, most notably, end illegal deforestation by 2030.

However, CAT is still critical of Brazil, writing: “There are significant gaps in Brazilian policymaking for halting emissions growth, and Brazil’s deforestation remains a serious cause for concern.”

Canada

Canada has often borne the brunt of climate change, from brutal heat waves to devastating forest fires.

But while describing recent climate policy developments as “positive,” CAT deems these to be “insufficient” to address the climate crisis.

The analysts add: “If fully implemented, Canada’s current policies are not enough to achieve this target and are only in line with 4C warming. Canada is also not meeting its fair-share contributions to climate change and, in addition to strengthening its targets and policies, also needs to provide additional support to others.”

China

An agreement between China and the U.S., the world’s two biggest carbon polluters, to boost climate cooperation over the next 10 years, was one of the most striking headlines from the COP26 climate summit.

Ahead of the summit, China officially submitted its carbon neutrality “before 2060” target.

However, CAT notes there is still space to accelerate China’s green revolution, writing: “To improve on its rating and become compatible with 2C (‘Almost sufficient’), China would need to peak emissions as early as possible, and decrease coal and other fossil fuel consumption at a much faster rate than currently planned —and set clear phase-out timelines.”

Colombia

The South American country with a population of almost 51 million people has previously said reducing emissions from deforestation is a vital part of its planned climate action.

However, while Colombia does have mitigation targets for energy and transport, CAT states that “further action is needed.”

India

Political pressure exerted by India and China reportedly resulted in a final COP26 deal promising only to “phase down” instead of “phase out” coal.

However, CAT notes the difficulties of still-developing countries such as India to meet the commitments of its wealthier neighbors, writing: “India has been severely impacted by COVID 19 during the second wave in the first half of 2021, which has further reduced the resilience of climate-change-vulnerable populations already at risk of displacement by storms, floods, droughts and other climate disasters.”

Indonesia

Following COP26, Indonesia introduced new rules on carbon trading to introduce a market mechanism to achieve the southeast Asian country’s greenhouse-gas-reduction targets by 2030.

However, the CAT analysis suggests emissions will still “continue to accelerate away from Paris-compatible levels.”

Kazakhstan

The Central Asian, former Soviet state has been rated “highly insufficient” by CAT, which argues that its “climate policies and commitments are not consistent with any interpretation of a fair-share contribution and lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions.”

This forecast is despite Kazakhstan’s falling fossil-fuel production due to the pandemic.

Mexico

CAT rates Mexico’s climate targets and policies “highly insufficient,” but with one exception.

Mexico’s conditional Nationally Determined Contributions target, “roughly stabilises emissions at today’s level,” it states.

During the pandemic, the Mexican Ministry of Energy published a bill effectively halting private renewable energy investment in the country, prioritizing the government’s own ageing, fossil fuel-fired power plants.

New Zealand

New Zealand has a net-zero emissions 2050 target goal enshrined in law, but its short-term policies are considered by CAT to be unable to keep track.

CAT writes: “New Zealand is increasingly relying on the mitigation potential of the land use and forestry sector to meet its target rather than focusing efforts on reducing emissions from high-emitting sectors.”

Saudi Arabia

Despite perceived improvements in Saudi Arabia’s commitment to climate action, CAT declares on its site that these “commitments do not resolve concerns about its role as one of the world’s leading fossil fuel exporters.”

CAT writes of the Middle Eastern country: “Its updated Paris Agreement pledge is explicitly based on a scenario with substantial fossil-fuel exports and has a ‘get-out clause’ if international climate-change policies negatively affect these exports.”

“Shortly before the Saudi government released its updated emissions pledge, the national oil company Saudi Aramco announced it would aim to increase oil production capacity during this decade.”

South Korea

Although there are positive signs of progress in the East Asian nation, CAT believes South Korea “lacks the necessary speed and stringency it needs to get onto a pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature limit.”

This is despite the fact South Korea’s 2020 share of coal-fired power generation decreased from 43 percent to 39 percent, as fossil fuels still account for a “very large” amount, thought to be more than two-thirds of the supply.

United Arab Emirates

The U.A.E’s development of large renewable and nuclear energy projects shows signs of hope, but the Middle Eastern state’s emissions are projected to continue growing because of the continued expansion of its fossil-fuel-based sources of electricity.

CAT writes on its site: “In line with its energy strategy, which projects coal reaching a 12 percent share of total electricity generation in 2050, in May 2020 the UAE completed the first unit of its inaugural 2.4 GW coal-fired power plant.”

“The construction of new coal-fired generation is inconsistent with the need to phase out coal from electricity production in the Middle East by 2034 in order to limit warming to 1.5C.”

Ukraine

Environmental forecasts for the country have painted a slightly bleaker prognosis for Ukraine, with emissions projected to be 1 percent higher than pre-COVID-19 estimations.

This is despite the Ukrainian government approving its Economic Stimulus Program to help stabilize the economy in May 2020.

[SŁOWNICZEK]

outweigh – przeważać nad, mieć większą wagę niż

off track – daleko od czegoś

tabulate – ujmować w tabelę

beset – dręczyć, nękać

methane – metan

illegal deforestation – nielegalne wylesianie

halt emissions

growth – powstrzymywać wzrost emisji

bear the brunt – brać na siebie ciężar

striking headline – uderzający nagłówek

phase down – ograniczać coś stopniowo

phase out – wycofywać coś stopniowo

displacement – wysiedlenie

enshrined in law – zapisany w prawie, zagwarantowany prawnie

forestry sector – sektor leśnictwa

stringency – siła, ostrość (np. przepisów)

inconsistent – niezgodny, sprzeczny

slightly bleaker prognosis – nieco gorsza prognoza

Task1

Read the text and answer the following questions:

1. What is the main cause of climate change?

2. What, specifically, has been identified as the major driver of climate change?

3. What is the limit on temperature increase set by the Paris Agreement?

Which country (or countries) …

4. … is the world’s biggest carbon polluter?

5. … is excessively reliant on natural gas?

6. … has not approved the Paris Agreement?

7. … is the world’s leading fossil-fuel exporter?

8. … stopped investing in green energy because of the pandemic?

Task 2

First, match the words to form collocations and verb phrases that will help you describe the issue presented in the article. Next, write down a sentence using each collocation and verb phrase. The sentences you create should relate to the topic being discussed in the text. (See Key)

Collocations:

fossil

global

greenhouse

renewable

illegal

heat

forest

carbon

gas emissions

neutrality

deforestation

fuel

fires

warming

energy

waves

Verb phrases:

work

drive

embrace

decrease

halt

address

boost

accelerate

the climate crisis

collaboratively

green revolution

change

climate cooperation

emissions growth

eco-friendly policies

dependency on gas

Task 3

Use the collocations and verb phrases above to sum up the key points of the text. Record your text analysis on a voice recorder, or practice delivering your presentation in a group setting.

Examples:

Human activity is causing …

November’s COP26 summit was …

Scientific analysts Climate Action Tracker

have …

Its analysis indicates …

Task 4

Now it’s time to put forward your views on the issues. Write an article on the topic: Heal the Earth.

Points to consider

☛ Decide on the style of the article

☛ Think of a short, clear, appropriate headline to attract the reader’s attention

☛ Deal with a different aspect of the topic in each paragraph

☛ Use linking words/transitions to connect your ideas (although, yet, moreover, etc.)

☛ Avoid using simplistic words (good, bad, nice, etc.)

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