“The consolidation of PiS is still in progress”

Commentary on the weekly Socio-Political Survey of the portal wPolityce.pl and the weekly magazine „Sieci”.

READ MORE: SURVEY. Law and Justice has reached 40 per cent of support. Its lead over the Civic Coalition is 12 points

Another 186th round of polling means that the process of consolidation of Law and Justice is now in its third week.

After the previous two weeks in which the formation rose from 35 per cent support to 38 per cent support; the current survey indicates that Law and Justice is breaking through the psychological threshold of 40 per cent.

There is a visible link between the declining number of undecided and the increases for PiS. The Civic Coalition, Confederation and PL 2050 lose one per cent each and they go ex-aequo at 8 per cent.

The PSL maintains 4 per cent support, a level that ensures the People’s Party’s entry into the Parliament. Among niche groupings, Kukiz has 2 per cent and Porozumienie 1 per cent.

The strengthening of the Law and Justice party may be related to the improvement of the situation on the coal market and the development of nuclear energy, the positively perceived approach of the Polish authorities towards the missile accident in Przewodów, the strengthening of Poland’s defence position in NATO.

Some optimism is also being infused by the good performance of the Polish national football team at the World Cup in Qatar.

The opposition is most likely to be weakened by its nervous and contradictory movements around Przewodów, the regular contestation of the Polish government in its dispute with the European Union, and the lack of a positive programme.

Turnout is oscillating at 57 per cent, down 3 per cent compared to the previous week.

Marek Grabowski, President of Social Changes, sociologist, graduate of the Institute of Sociology, University of Warsaw. He has been working in market and opinion research since 1999.

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